Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220829 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 21.5 22.7 23.8 26.3 27.9 35.9 42.7 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 49.0 45.0 50.0 61.0 66.0 73.0 81.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -4.0 -2.0 -22.0 34.0 30.0 45.0 50.0 U U U VU N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 61.0 62.0 64.0 68.0 74.0 76.0 N U N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.0 -9.0 5.0 F N F N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 75.8% 52.8% 64.3% 25kt / 24h 76.5% 72.5% 74.5% 30kt / 24h 76.5% 72.5% 74.5% 35kt / 24h 76.5% 72.5% 74.5% 40kt / 24h 51.0% 71.9% 61.4% 45kt / 36h 42.9% 44.7% 43.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 28.0% 14.0% 55kt / 48h 14.0% 23.1% 18.6% 70kt / 48h 3.4% 8.2% 5.8% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 6.3% 4.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.22 WP122022 220829 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 21.5 22.7 23.8 26.3 27.9 35.9 42.7 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 61.0 62.0 64.0 68.0 74.0 76.0 N F N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.0 -9.0 5.0 U N U N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%