Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220829 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 139.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 50.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 22.8 19.9 21.3 26.7 34.7 45.5 44.2 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 52.0 57.0 58.0 69.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -16.0 -2.0 22.0 49.0 37.0 62.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 61.0 65.0 69.0 75.0 U U U U N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -12.0 -15.0 -7.0 -12.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 F F VF F F N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 40.3% 12.0% 26.2% 25kt / 24h 15.5% 14.6% 15.0% 30kt / 24h 15.5% 10.1% 12.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.20 WP122022 220829 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 139.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 50.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 22.8 19.9 21.3 26.7 34.7 45.5 44.2 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 61.0 65.0 69.0 75.0 F F F F N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -12.0 -15.0 -7.0 -12.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 U U VU U U N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6%