Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  20.0  21.9  25.8  27.1  40.6  46.4  46.5  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  57.0  58.0  64.0  70.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   2.0   5.0  17.0  13.0  39.0  35.0 106.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  66.0  73.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -7.0   3.0 -18.0 -12.0   8.0  20.0  F  F  F  N VF  F  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.6%        9.1%       20.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.4%       11.8%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%        7.3%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%        7.2%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%        7.2%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.32

 WP122022 220830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  20.0  21.9  25.8  27.1  40.6  46.4  46.5  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  66.0  73.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -7.0   3.0 -18.0 -12.0   8.0  20.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%