Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220901 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 37.1 36.6 33.7 25.7 42.5 42.5 34.7 U U U U N VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 88.0 88.0 88.0 87.0 90.0 87.0 78.0 73.0 F F F N F N N N Potential [kt] 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 70.0 71.0 78.0 59.0 67.0 75.0 39.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 85.0 83.0 86.0 84.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 12.0 3.0 1.0 15.0 19.0 54.0 N U U N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.8% 0.0% 12.4% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.70 WP122022 220901 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 37.1 36.6 33.7 25.7 42.5 42.5 34.7 N F F F N VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 85.0 83.0 86.0 84.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 12.0 3.0 1.0 15.0 19.0 54.0 N F F N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 7.3% 3.7%