Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  37.6  33.7  30.7  34.6  41.8  38.5  26.2  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  87.0  87.0  88.0  91.0  85.0  84.0  47.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  71.0  78.0  60.0  78.0  75.0  40.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  14.0   3.0   7.0   3.0  27.0  16.0  -6.0  U  U  N  N  N VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        1.3%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        1.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.62

 WP122022 220901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  37.6  33.7  30.7  34.6  41.8  38.5  26.2  F  F  F  N  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  14.0   3.0   7.0   3.0  27.0  16.0  -6.0  F  F  N  N  N VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       13.6%        6.8%