Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.2  37.9  35.2  35.3  28.2  22.9  23.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  85.0  82.0  77.0  72.0  64.0  52.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  89.0  86.0  89.0  36.0  -1.0  58.0 118.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  14.0  43.0  65.0  47.0  16.0 -40.0 -22.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        0.1%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 WP122022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.2  37.9  35.2  35.3  28.2  22.9  23.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  14.0  43.0  65.0  47.0  16.0 -40.0 -22.0  F  F VF VF VF  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       27.7%        7.1%       17.4%