Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  37.7  35.7  31.6  35.2  31.9  22.0  32.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  87.0  84.0  80.0  74.0  48.0  51.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  86.0  99.0  69.0  23.0 -25.0  62.0  83.0  N  F  F  N  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  36.0  24.0  59.0  44.0  47.0  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.5%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%        7.0%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        3.4%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        3.1%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%        1.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.1%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        0.2%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 WP122022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  37.7  35.7  31.6  35.2  31.9  22.0  32.8  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  36.0  24.0  59.0  44.0  47.0  18.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%