Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220903 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 124.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 33.9 33.7 32.5 26.5 30.3 45.3 65.1 U U U U N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 78.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 38.0 41.0 37.0 24.0 N N N N U N U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 75.1 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 33.0 27.0 19.0 -24.0 59.0 86.0 82.0 F N U U VU N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 76.0 74.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 63.0 40.0 F F N F F F N VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 45.0 33.0 43.0 51.0 35.0 70.0 48.0 48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 19.4% 9.6% 14.5% 25kt / 24h 29.0% 28.3% 28.6% 30kt / 24h 22.4% 20.7% 21.6% 35kt / 24h 22.4% 20.7% 21.6% 40kt / 24h 6.2% 19.2% 12.7% 45kt / 36h 16.8% 9.6% 13.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 3.4% 5.4% 4.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.76 WP122022 220903 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 124.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 33.9 33.7 32.5 26.5 30.3 45.3 65.1 F F F N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 76.0 74.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 63.0 40.0 U U N U U U N VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 45.0 33.0 43.0 51.0 35.0 70.0 48.0 48.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 49.7% 2.2% 26.0%