Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220903 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 26.6 26.1 22.1 20.8 33.1 55.0 104.5 U N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 63.0 41.0 41.0 43.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 60.7 1.7 -30.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 -7.0 -6.0 41.0 101.0 89.0 70.0 43.0 U U U N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 67.0 43.0 43.0 F F F F F N VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 24.0 5.0 -9.0 -1.0 -39.0 -65.0-129.0 U VU N F N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.1% 7.9% 12.5% 25kt / 24h 16.6% 19.5% 18.0% 30kt / 24h 16.6% 13.7% 15.2% 35kt / 24h 16.6% 13.7% 15.2% 40kt / 24h 4.7% 13.3% 9.0% 45kt / 36h 32.4% 9.1% 20.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.1% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 3.0% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 WP122022 220903 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 26.6 26.1 22.1 20.8 33.1 55.0 104.5 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 67.0 43.0 43.0 U U U U U N VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 24.0 5.0 -9.0 -1.0 -39.0 -65.0-129.0 F VF N U N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%