Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220904 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 124.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 24.9 16.3 17.5 17.0 42.3 70.6 103.5 N N F F F VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 56.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 26.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 16.1 -10.2 -55.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -18.0 20.0 66.0 99.0 78.0 32.0 86.0 U U U N F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 51.0 36.0 48.0 F F F F N U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 34.0 13.0 9.0 10.0 -33.0 89.0 73.0 VU VU U U U VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 48.8% 19.0% 33.9% 25kt / 24h 42.2% 35.6% 38.9% 30kt / 24h 42.2% 31.0% 36.6% 35kt / 24h 42.2% 31.0% 36.6% 40kt / 24h 13.2% 28.9% 21.0% 45kt / 36h 75.7% 33.7% 54.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 WP122022 220904 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 124.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 24.9 16.3 17.5 17.0 42.3 70.6 103.5 N N U N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 51.0 36.0 48.0 U U U U N F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 34.0 13.0 9.0 10.0 -33.0 89.0 73.0 VF VF F F F VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9%