Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 17.4 17.2 19.6 31.0 57.6 72.6 89.6 N F F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 45.0 47.0 36.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 43.6 -4.5 -42.3 -58.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 16.0 48.0 76.0 66.0 88.0 38.0 98.0 U U N N N F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 78.0 73.0 62.0 47.0 49.0 54.0 F F F N N VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -19.0 7.0 -25.0 -30.0 -18.0 -48.0 -31.0 N VF N VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 45.6% 20.4% 33.0% 25kt / 24h 39.0% 35.1% 37.1% 30kt / 24h 39.0% 30.6% 34.8% 35kt / 24h 39.0% 30.6% 34.8% 40kt / 24h 11.5% 28.8% 20.1% 45kt / 36h 60.4% 20.3% 40.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 WP122022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 17.4 17.2 19.6 31.0 57.6 72.6 89.6 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 78.0 73.0 62.0 47.0 49.0 54.0 U U U N N VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -19.0 7.0 -25.0 -30.0 -18.0 -48.0 -31.0 N VU N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%