Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220906 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.50 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 63.7 79.2 83.2 68.7 47.2 34.9 36.8 41.1 VU VU VU VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 11.8 -10.9 -20.4 -22.1 -30.4 -36.0 -35.9 -35.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 60.0 99.0 148.0 149.0 78.0 82.0 31.0 N N F VF VF N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 51.0 55.0 61.0 67.0 77.0 68.0 67.0 VU U U N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -81.0 -26.0 -3.0-123.0-134.0 -39.0 23.0 F VF VF N VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.68 WP122022 220906 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.50 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.