Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220906 06UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 133.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 77.9 75.4 66.6 68.9 33.8 45.8 37.6 41.6 VU VU VU VU U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -3.3 -15.0 -16.6 -25.4 -31.1 -31.0 -30.9 -30.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 113.0 132.0 167.0 133.0 88.0 36.0 29.0 N F F VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 55.0 62.0 79.0 73.0 69.0 70.0 U U U N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -87.0 -62.0 6.0 -47.0-158.0 -30.0 -12.0 56.0 VF VF N VF VF VF F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.42 WP122022 220906 06UTC Storm Located at : 39.80 133.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.