Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132022 220830 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.5 43.8 39.8 45.7 29.0 46.5 53.0 54.1 U VU U VU N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 71.0 66.0 70.0 66.0 69.0 81.0 84.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 26.0 36.0 36.0 64.0 60.0 91.0 94.0 U U N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 67.0 72.0 78.0 79.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 -7.0 -2.0 12.0 -22.0 -17.0 -25.0 N N F N U VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 6.4% 3.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 7.1% 3.6% 5.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.62 WP132022 220830 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.5 43.8 39.8 45.7 29.0 46.5 53.0 54.1 F VF F VF N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 67.0 72.0 78.0 79.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 -7.0 -2.0 12.0 -22.0 -17.0 -25.0 N N U N F VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%