Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132022 220831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  38.6  33.6  28.6  20.7  41.7  45.1  49.1  U  U  U  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  77.0  88.0  87.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  50.0  53.0  50.0  63.0  78.0  53.0  78.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  72.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0   3.0   4.0  -9.0   0.0 -11.0 -21.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        9.2%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       17.1%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        5.1%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        3.7%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       17.9%        9.7%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.56

 WP132022 220831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  38.6  33.6  28.6  20.7  41.7  45.1  49.1  F  F  F  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  72.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0   3.0   4.0  -9.0   0.0 -11.0 -21.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%