Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132022 220831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  35.4  28.4  22.4  35.5  45.0  51.0  51.5  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  75.0  76.0  82.0  87.0  88.0  90.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  55.0  63.0  57.0  65.0  69.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  70.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -9.0  -2.0 -18.0 -78.0 -79.0  F  F  F  F  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        7.4%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        2.7%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        1.4%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       18.1%        7.7%       12.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 WP132022 220831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  35.4  28.4  22.4  35.5  45.0  51.0  51.5  F  F  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  70.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -9.0  -2.0 -18.0 -78.0 -79.0  U  U  U  U  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%