Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132022 220831 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.5 39.9 32.1 23.3 44.5 47.8 50.5 45.4 U U U N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 71.0 79.0 81.0 88.0 88.0 86.0 80.0 N N N N F F N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 56.0 77.0 83.0 75.0 70.0 92.0 52.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 68.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -20.0 -7.0 -5.0 -14.0 -34.0 -40.0 -21.0 F VF F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 1.5% 6.2% 3.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 5.3% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 11.8% 5.7% 8.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.52 WP132022 220831 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.5 39.9 32.1 23.3 44.5 47.8 50.5 45.4 F F N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 68.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -20.0 -7.0 -5.0 -14.0 -34.0 -40.0 -21.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%