Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  21.3  22.7  17.1  16.1  20.1  23.6  26.7  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 116.0 120.0 118.0 114.0 103.0  80.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  21.0  21.0  14.0  11.0  16.0   3.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       24.8%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%       10.4%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        7.8%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.8%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       48.8%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.6%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       45.1%       31.9%       38.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       27.0%       25.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       56.8%       59.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 WP142022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  21.3  22.7  17.1  16.1  20.1  23.6  26.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%