Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.8  16.4  16.2  15.3  17.3  12.0  11.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  125.0 127.0 124.0 119.0 121.0 117.0 106.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  35.0  35.0  27.0  47.0  19.0  12.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        7.5%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.8%       51.4%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       31.4%       23.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%       27.7%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       27.7%       15.2%
 45kt / 36h       36.1%       68.2%       52.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.2%       23.1%
 55kt / 48h       60.1%       54.3%       57.2%
 70kt / 48h       60.1%       50.1%       55.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       81.5%       71.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.66

 WP142022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.8  16.4  16.2  15.3  17.3  12.0  11.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%