Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  18.6  17.7  17.4  16.2  18.6  16.9  19.2  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  131.0 130.0 125.0 123.0 118.0 108.0  81.0  64.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  60.0  69.0  56.0  42.0  45.0  39.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%       12.7%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       48.7%       66.8%       57.8%
 30kt / 24h       26.5%       49.9%       38.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.4%       46.8%       32.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       45.9%       24.5%
 45kt / 36h       43.8%       76.0%       59.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       58.6%       29.3%
 55kt / 48h       62.1%       64.2%       63.1%
 70kt / 48h       62.1%       58.3%       60.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       79.2%       70.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.74

 WP142022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  18.6  17.7  17.4  16.2  18.6  16.9  19.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%