Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142022 220908 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 67.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 21.0 18.2 17.0 19.8 9.6 8.1 11.6 F N F F N F VF F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 109.0 94.0 84.0 62.0 57.0 67.0 72.0 F F F N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1 119.3 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 72.0 51.0 46.0 49.0 23.0 64.0 35.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 62.0 60.0 N N U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.9% 20.0% 16.4% 25kt / 24h 53.2% 70.8% 62.0% 30kt / 24h 33.1% 59.1% 46.1% 35kt / 24h 21.0% 59.1% 40.0% 40kt / 24h 11.0% 56.9% 33.9% 45kt / 36h 41.2% 69.4% 55.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 51.1% 25.6% 55kt / 48h 51.0% 56.8% 53.9% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 43.8% 34.3% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 69.3% 65.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 WP142022 220908 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 21.0 18.2 17.0 19.8 9.6 8.1 11.6 N N N N N U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 62.0 60.0 N N F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%