Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.8  21.6  15.4  13.7  19.6  24.2  26.7  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  60.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  51.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  99.3  87.9  83.6  92.3  99.3 100.0  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  44.0  16.0   7.0  49.0  37.0  57.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.3%       30.7%       35.0%
 25kt / 24h       50.8%       62.4%       56.6%
 30kt / 24h       40.5%       58.4%       49.5%
 35kt / 24h       35.8%       58.4%       47.1%
 40kt / 24h       25.4%       56.0%       40.7%
 45kt / 36h       38.4%       53.1%       45.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.9%       18.0%
 55kt / 48h       33.0%       35.2%       34.1%
 70kt / 48h       20.3%       18.4%       19.4%
 65kt / 72h       26.2%       17.4%       21.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP142022 220909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.8  21.6  15.4  13.7  19.6  24.2  26.7  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%