Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.8  16.6  16.6  13.2  20.3  17.8  23.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         67.9  65.7  65.7  65.7  72.3  79.3  80.0  79.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  14.0  46.0  50.0  26.0  50.0  55.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.6%       36.1%       49.3%
 25kt / 24h       55.8%       58.9%       57.4%
 30kt / 24h       55.6%       58.9%       57.3%
 35kt / 24h       55.6%       58.9%       57.3%
 40kt / 24h       33.2%       55.7%       44.4%
 45kt / 36h       56.4%       51.0%       53.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.3%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%       21.2%       24.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP142022 220910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.8  16.6  16.6  13.2  20.3  17.8  23.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%