Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.1  24.0  27.8  19.6  23.3  25.0  39.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  40.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.1  50.1  50.1  52.3  52.3  52.3  50.1  43.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  37.0  49.0  25.0  43.0  23.0  53.0 -12.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  66.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.4%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        2.7%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.5%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 WP142022 220911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.1  24.0  27.8  19.6  23.3  25.0  39.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  66.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%