Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.2  27.5  23.5  19.8  27.6  28.6  37.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  49.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.9  60.1  60.1  60.1  62.3  57.9  51.5  39.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  50.0  28.0  34.0  54.0  30.0  24.0 -22.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  67.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   0.0  -6.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%        0.7%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 WP142022 220911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.2  27.5  23.5  19.8  27.6  28.6  37.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  67.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   0.0  -6.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%