Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  28.3  23.8  20.5  25.3  22.8  31.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  44.0  20.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.1  70.1  72.3  72.3  70.1  61.5  48.0  28.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  21.0  23.0  52.0  26.0  64.0  -3.0  19.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  65.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   3.0 -10.0 -48.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        0.6%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP142022 220912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  28.3  23.8  20.5  25.3  22.8  31.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  65.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   3.0 -10.0 -48.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%