Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.7  19.3  21.2  18.3  26.6  23.0  26.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  60.0  55.0  41.0  23.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.3  77.3  77.3  75.1  70.7  60.5  -1.6 -20.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  38.0  42.0  58.0  34.0  38.0  -5.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        7.9%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        5.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.6%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        1.9%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP142022 220912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.7  19.3  21.2  18.3  26.6  23.0  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%