Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.8  22.0  17.8  27.1  26.2  33.6  34.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  47.0  25.0  14.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  62.9  58.6  54.4  34.3  19.4  10.5   0.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  23.0  22.0  57.0  -5.0   7.0   7.0   6.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   0.0  -2.0  20.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.9%        9.3%       12.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       16.7%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       12.0%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       12.0%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       11.4%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%        5.6%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 WP142022 220913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.8  22.0  17.8  27.1  26.2  33.6  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   0.0  -2.0  20.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%