Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142022 220913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  26.7  29.0  29.7  34.8  39.8  43.7  46.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  46.2  30.0  23.0   9.8   6.7   2.8   0.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  18.0 -22.0  -8.0  50.0   8.0 -14.0   4.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 WP142022 220913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.