Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142022 220915 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 31.5 33.8 46.6 68.9 86.1 94.0 90.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.9 25.8 33.4 47.7 9.6 2.7 -0.3 -3.9 U VU VU U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 9.0 12.0 54.0 50.0 59.0 61.0 79.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 35.0 48.0 63.0 U U VU VU VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 16.0 21.0 11.0 18.0 31.0 60.0 85.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.98 WP142022 220915 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.