Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142022 220916 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 121.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.8 58.8 62.8 79.8 91.1 72.2 53.1 68.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.2 20.0 15.6 13.2 13.2 8.5 6.5 6.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 87.0 82.0 73.0 88.0 132.0 43.0 30.0 N F N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 49.0 51.0 51.0 60.0 64.0 72.0 76.0 VU U U U N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 2.0 47.0 52.0 60.0 55.0 -11.0 -20.0 U N VU VU VU VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.66 WP142022 220916 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 121.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.