Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  20.4  28.0  24.9  23.7  21.5  22.4  20.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  54.0  43.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  16.0  37.0  55.0  49.0  64.0  75.0  91.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.8%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.6%       30.8%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       14.6%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       13.9%        8.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       13.9%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       41.6%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       21.4%       19.2%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       16.5%       13.6%
 65kt / 72h       32.3%       33.7%       33.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP152022 220910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  20.4  28.0  24.9  23.7  21.5  22.4  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%