Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  34.2  36.6  33.4  39.0  31.6  35.1  30.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  50.0  53.0  55.0  45.0  29.0  20.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 108.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  56.0  33.0   0.0  29.0  75.0  33.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  12.0  13.0   0.0 -13.0 -21.0 -40.0  N  U  U  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       10.4%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.4%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        9.7%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        3.8%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        5.3%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP152022 220911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  34.2  36.6  33.4  39.0  31.6  35.1  30.1  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  12.0  13.0   0.0 -13.0 -21.0 -40.0  N  F  F  F  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%