Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  33.2  33.6  31.9  31.2  24.5  35.6  44.7  N  U  U  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  33.0  22.0  17.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 109.4  89.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -9.0   2.0  21.0  62.0  27.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  17.0  17.0  15.0 -19.0 -60.0-246.0  U  U  U  U  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.5%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        9.8%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.4%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       10.4%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        6.5%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP152022 220911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  33.2  33.6  31.9  31.2  24.5  35.6  44.7  N  F  F  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  17.0  17.0  15.0 -19.0 -60.0-246.0  F  F  F  F  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%