Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  21.3  20.2  21.6  19.9  19.9  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  54.0  47.0  30.0  20.0  15.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7 105.5  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  45.0  69.0  91.0  68.0  76.0  53.0 104.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  12.0  18.0  15.0  20.0  13.0  10.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       17.4%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.9%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.2%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        6.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       18.3%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       11.3%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        4.0%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.9%        7.3%       16.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP152022 220912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  21.3  20.2  21.6  19.9  19.9  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  12.0  18.0  15.0  20.0  13.0  10.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%