Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  21.7  19.4  22.7  18.6  19.8  14.9  50.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  28.0  26.0  12.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 103.5  89.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  60.0  87.0  70.0  92.0  47.0 123.0 178.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0  10.0  10.0  15.0  14.0   7.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       19.0%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.8%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.0%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.0%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       21.3%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       13.2%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        5.2%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h       25.8%        7.9%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP152022 220912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  21.7  19.4  22.7  18.6  19.8  14.9  50.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0  10.0  10.0  15.0  14.0   7.0  16.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%