Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152022 220913 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 163.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 20.6 18.4 19.4 14.1 41.4 80.3 110.0 N N F N F VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 26.0 23.0 23.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 109.3 102.3 93.6 81.6 47.9 -3.7 -12.5 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 15.0 37.0 18.0 85.0 103.0 158.0 74.0 N U N U F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 49.0 49.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 27.0 32.0 39.0 10.0 -4.0 -26.0 -86.0 VU VU VU VU U F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.1% 4.0% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 8.0% 19.8% 13.9% 30kt / 24h 5.4% 11.4% 8.4% 35kt / 24h 4.8% 11.4% 8.1% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 11.4% 6.1% 45kt / 36h 4.9% 11.8% 8.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.2% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 WP152022 220913 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 163.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 20.6 18.4 19.4 14.1 41.4 80.3 110.0 N N N N U VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 49.0 49.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 27.0 32.0 39.0 10.0 -4.0 -26.0 -86.0 VF VF VF VF F U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 17.7% 0.2% 8.9%