Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152022 220913 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 162.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 15.5 18.3 18.1 29.5 60.4 107.6 92.3 F F F F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 24.0 20.0 15.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.3 97.3 88.6 82.4 64.3 1.8 -15.8 -17.3 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 46.0 17.0 12.0 114.0 181.0 143.0 120.0 N N U U F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 55.0 54.0 49.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 28.0 40.0 37.0 42.0 104.0 160.0 158.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.2% 14.5% 13.8% 25kt / 24h 21.6% 39.2% 30.4% 30kt / 24h 16.0% 33.1% 24.6% 35kt / 24h 16.0% 33.1% 24.6% 40kt / 24h 4.5% 30.7% 17.6% 45kt / 36h 8.6% 20.7% 14.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 9.5% 4.8% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 WP152022 220913 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 162.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 15.5 18.3 18.1 29.5 60.4 107.6 92.3 N U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 55.0 54.0 49.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 28.0 40.0 37.0 42.0 104.0 160.0 158.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 18.1% 0.2% 9.1%