Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152022 220914 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 162.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 17.0 38.7 52.0 76.2 79.5 47.2 34.7 N F U VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.0 59.4 46.5 13.3 -22.1 -26.9 -27.9 -28.8 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 101.0 123.0 159.0 136.0 88.0 100.0 110.0 N F F VF VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 51.0 55.0 52.0 58.0 57.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 24.0 -21.0 -36.0 -10.0 -45.0-208.0-257.0 VU VU VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.8% 4.4% 6.6% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.98 WP152022 220914 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 162.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.