Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152022 220914 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.90 161.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 42.2 50.9 61.8 84.3 57.5 41.8 29.3 N VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.2 49.6 12.4 -12.3 -26.5 -27.2 -28.3 -29.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 123.0 156.0 162.0 20.0 94.0 122.0 98.0 F F VF VF U F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 48.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 54.0 52.0 66.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 -27.0 -47.0 -77.0-160.0-205.0-187.0-209.0 VU VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.9% 1.2% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.28 WP152022 220914 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.90 161.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.