Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152022 220915 06UTC Storm Located at : 41.30 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 64.3 85.0 94.3 78.4 39.4 31.1 34.2 32.8 VU VU VU VU U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -5.0 -14.1 -16.8 -17.2 -18.1 -18.9 -20.3 -19.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 156.0 105.0 48.0 70.0 102.0 117.0 51.0 68.0 VF F N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 65.0 74.0 71.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -71.0 -72.0-128.0-107.0 -69.0 -90.0 -35.0 -54.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.32 WP152022 220915 06UTC Storm Located at : 41.30 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.