Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152022 220915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     46.40    168.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    177.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        98.0 104.3  89.4  63.6  31.5  34.3  35.7  33.6 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.3  -5.2  -7.2  -7.9  -8.4  -9.9 -10.1  -9.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  42.0  74.0  84.0 116.0  78.0  55.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  61.0  73.0  68.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.0  -6.0   5.0  -8.0  75.0 100.0  67.0  18.0 VU  F  N  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 12.50

 WP152022 220915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     46.40    168.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.