Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  11.6  13.6  17.2  13.3  21.7  18.5  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  66.0  68.0  61.0  53.0  48.0  58.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   5.0   2.0   3.0  24.0 -13.0  21.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        5.8%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       40.1%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.0%       23.4%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       21.2%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       21.2%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%       60.0%       37.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       40.5%       20.2%
 55kt / 48h       28.5%       36.4%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       15.8%       32.4%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h       33.0%       53.2%       43.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP162022 220912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  11.6  13.6  17.2  13.3  21.7  18.5  22.4  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%