Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  16.2  18.3  16.1  21.0  26.8  25.7  30.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  30.0   7.0  16.0  47.0  15.0  15.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   9.0  16.0  37.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       27.6%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%       13.4%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       11.5%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       11.5%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       40.0%       24.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.8%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       24.9%       23.3%       24.1%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%       16.2%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       34.0%       30.4%       32.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP162022 220913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  16.2  18.3  16.1  21.0  26.8  25.7  30.8  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   9.0  16.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%