Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.9  17.3  17.1  19.5  14.9  20.8  21.1  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  55.0  47.0  47.0  89.0   6.0  28.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%       19.9%       16.2%
 25kt / 24h       45.9%       67.1%       56.5%
 30kt / 24h       27.6%       59.1%       43.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.8%       59.1%       42.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.2%       57.0%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       37.7%       63.7%       50.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.0%       22.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.5%       52.3%       47.9%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       31.9%       27.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.9%       39.6%       40.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP162022 220914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.9  17.3  17.1  19.5  14.9  20.8  21.1  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%