Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162022 220915 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.40 137.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 21.1 21.9 19.3 19.3 24.6 31.2 39.7 F N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 61.0 61.0 56.0 53.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 89.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 12.0 36.0 45.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 36.0 U U N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 59.0 63.0 58.0 N N N N U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -14.0 -9.0 -23.0 25.0 N N N N VF F VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 69.0% 50.9% 59.9% 25kt / 24h 79.9% 78.5% 79.2% 30kt / 24h 79.9% 78.5% 79.2% 35kt / 24h 79.9% 78.5% 79.2% 40kt / 24h 40.3% 77.4% 58.8% 45kt / 36h 52.4% 61.3% 56.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 45.1% 22.6% 55kt / 48h 28.3% 38.6% 33.4% 70kt / 48h 9.5% 18.1% 13.8% 65kt / 72h 6.3% 12.0% 9.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP162022 220915 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.40 137.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 21.1 21.9 19.3 19.3 24.6 31.2 39.7 U N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 59.0 63.0 58.0 N N N N F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -14.0 -9.0 -23.0 25.0 N N N N VU U VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%