Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  18.9  18.6  21.3  21.5  24.4  27.9  38.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  53.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  14.4  -2.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   3.0   8.0  34.0   0.0  27.0  33.0  36.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.9%       21.7%       37.8%
 25kt / 24h       38.5%       27.9%       33.2%
 30kt / 24h       38.5%       22.5%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       38.5%       22.5%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       21.2%       14.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP162022 220916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  18.9  18.6  21.3  21.5  24.4  27.9  38.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%