Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162022 220916 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 134.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 18.9 21.5 18.6 21.7 26.0 33.1 44.2 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 56.0 54.0 51.0 52.0 55.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 18.6 -22.0 -16.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 18.0 7.0 -25.0 29.0 5.0 24.0 98.0 N U U VU N U U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 56.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 25.0 14.0 15.0 N N N N N VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.2% 18.1% 34.7% 25kt / 24h 18.2% 16.8% 17.5% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP162022 220916 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 134.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 18.9 21.5 18.6 21.7 26.0 33.1 44.2 U N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 56.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 25.0 14.0 15.0 N N N N N VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7%