Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.9  18.4  19.0  21.4  26.9  44.6  54.5  F  F  F  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  50.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  29.3  -0.2 -21.4 -20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  27.0   6.0  67.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  64.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  11.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.7%       16.9%       32.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       15.0%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP162022 220916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.9  18.4  19.0  21.4  26.9  44.6  54.5  U  U  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  64.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  11.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%