Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162022 220917 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 20.0 18.9 19.8 25.1 32.1 43.5 58.6 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 34.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 20.7 -8.9 -19.2 -10.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 0.0 -12.0 0.0 2.0 38.0 109.0 95.0 U U U U U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 52.0 53.0 62.0 N N N N U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 24.0 21.0 14.0 28.0 14.0 9.0 -46.0 N VU VU U VU U U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.3% 2.2% 3.7% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 3.0% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.32 WP162022 220917 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.00 133.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 20.0 18.9 19.8 25.1 32.1 43.5 58.6 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 52.0 53.0 62.0 N N N N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 24.0 21.0 14.0 28.0 14.0 9.0 -46.0 N VF VF F VF F F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.7% 2.8%